Endless Summer - Energy Security Beat Goes On

Threats Continue, Region by Region

AA Energy Security Briefing

Middle East and North Africa: Attacks persist in Iraq with energy personnel being at particular risk. The Lebanon crisis continues to evoke fears of Syrian and Iranian involvement while terrorist attacks in Turkey highlight the risk to energy personnel in the south and east of the country. Iraq's new investment law will leave the industry still wanting while the Iran nuclear issue seems destined for sanctions from the UN. Algeria's tax laws appear regressive and changes in the Kuwaiti cabinet hold implications for the energy industry. Supply talks between China and 22 Arab states ensue while new political risks emerge in Algeria, and political risks emerge in Algeria

Former Soviet Union and East Europe: Political risks remain for those countries within Russia's ‘near abroad’ sphere of influence, from Turkmenistan to Moldova. The G8 summit which was supposed to focus on energy security was sidetracked by the Lebanon conflict, highlighting the differences of understanding of the concept of energy security between the EU and Russia. Concerns continue over Russian gas supply dominance and crude oil cut-off to Lithuania, but Kazakhstan agrees to join BTC project. New Ukrainian PM gives hope to peaceful settlement of Russian gas price dispute amidst a possible emergence of oil theft in Belarus

Africa: Lack of security in the Niger Delta continues to concern with personnel bearing the brunt of the risk. In Chad worker unrest creates a problem for Exxon as the government issues expulsion over taxes, while Angola's Cabinda problem moved towards a settlement, although risks still remain; further kidnappings and attacks against industry facilities in the Niger Delta, democratic progress in Mauritania; shift in activity in the Niger Delta and the emergence of specific attacks against energy industry personnel. Violence in Chad continues to cause concern over oil-producing areas. Positive political developments in Cote D'Ivoire

Asia: An amnesty in Baluchistan, Pakistan, makes headway in curbing tribal militancy. ASEAN looks to discuss sanctions and other action against Myanmar while both Papua New Guinea and East Timor move to cement political stability; expanding risk to energy facilities in Baluchistan, a resurgent ULFA in Assam, interest in East Timor energy environment despite instability; attacks in Baluchistan underscore need for a broad risk management approach, news of widespread oil theft in China and civil unrest in Assam (India). Sri Lanka violence threatens energy transport routes

Latin America: In Colombia FARC renews hostile activity following a lull during the May 2006 presidential election. Few physical security threats to hydrocarbons infrastructure, however a campaign of guerrilla attacks against power networks in Colombia and a state of emergency in Ecuador surrounding Occidental fields seized by PetroEcuador is in the news following a mild de-escalation in attacks on hydrocarbons infrastructure during the presidential election period. Nationalization of the gas industry in Bolivia invites a stronger opposition

North America: Few security incidents of note in the US but a new report underlines the country's growing recognition of energy security issues; Public and private sector statements concerning security of supply, questions over the allocation of 2006 Homeland Security funding, and fears mount over supply and refining capacity as the hurricane season approaches even as the price of gasoline drops with increased inventories the end of summer

Europe: Political developments were dominated by the G8 summit overshadowed by violence in the Middle East. Progress was made in deciding matters of energy security, although critics would claim that they are not especially substantial. Perhaps most encouraging of all was an apparent agreement on a pledge to create more transparent practices in the global energy industry; Russia did not open up its energy transit network to other non-Russian operators; Polish opposition to Baltic pipeline project. Requirement for a designated Energy Security agency mooted by UK opposition

The A&A Energy Security Briefing is a collaborative venture between Alexander's Gas & Oil Connections, the premier source of market information for the global energy industry, and AKE, the leading provider of specialist international risk mitigation services.